Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 29.694794 33.060583 36.918642 41.733168 47.676785 54.911100 64.611514
2025-06-08 24.647156 28.807208 34.002580 41.187450 51.265968 65.632821 89.347810
2025-06-15 21.418501 25.890196 31.827718 40.709759 54.563910 77.422786 124.659116
2025-06-22 19.217731 23.827126 30.244353 40.477707 57.988707 91.258966 180.126196
2025-06-29 17.397508 21.966534 28.551531 39.575811 59.903235 103.654347 257.196951
2025-07-06 16.654063 21.489988 28.759101 41.700701 68.081690 136.491050 548.350022
2025-07-13 15.518772 20.284866 27.632896 41.227076 70.838865 158.964069 1119.860886
2025-07-20 14.707209 19.469905 27.000702 41.492530 75.393039 194.287720 5299.454137
2025-07-27 14.032272 18.790680 26.490399 41.864757 80.446058 242.799350 NaN
2025-08-03 13.369246 18.065531 25.805786 41.733877 84.172498 297.118148 NaN
2025-08-10 12.727669 17.320340 25.000039 41.189644 86.529209 354.793914 NaN
2025-08-17 12.252110 16.806899 24.549906 41.337327 91.265173 462.329313 NaN
2025-08-24 11.752115 16.225959 23.934685 41.042950 94.644760 596.987854 NaN
2025-08-31 11.272743 15.648620 23.274482 40.539498 97.174744 772.904445 NaN
2025-09-07 10.842655 15.127538 22.674337 40.085970 99.824601 1046.299419 NaN
2025-09-14 10.475804 14.691641 22.198662 39.864918 103.497688 1589.703406 NaN
2025-09-21 10.069492 14.165165 21.505861 38.987441 103.874002 2160.625671 NaN
2025-09-28 9.992534 14.202795 21.917443 41.060721 120.284724 37434.541649 NaN
2025-10-05 9.676770 13.802699 21.420663 40.599420 123.235957 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.448619 13.545685 21.193780 40.858438 130.903668 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.244222 13.319920 21.012486 41.221405 139.959231 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 9.012238 13.032827 20.681838 41.093858 145.853480 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.762561 12.702574 20.238374 40.563265 148.521762 NaN NaN